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The deadly asteroid Apophis is safely passing by Earth today, at more than 9 million miles (14.5 million kilometres) from our home planet. Next time we won’t be so lucky. On April 13, 2029, Apophis will come so close that it may destroy satellites in orbit.
The European Space Agency’s Herschel space observatory has acquired new images of the asteroid and their new data is conclusive.
First, it’s much bigger than NASA’s previous estimation. According to the new images, this rocky beast has a diamater of 325 metres, with a margin of error of ±15 metres. According to team leader Thomas Müller of the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics in Garching, Germany, “the 20 per cent increase in diameter, from 270 to 325m, translates into a 75 per cent increase in our estimates of the asteroid’s volume or mass.”
What that means is if it hits Earth, its destructive power will be much higher than what scientists originally expected. Based on previous data, NASA estimated an impact of 510 megatons for Apophis. That’s more than two times the energy released by the Krakatoa eruption of 1883, an event that changed Earth’s global climate for five years.
While scientists have not released a new estimate, the 75 per cent mass increase may bring its power closer to NASA’s earlier estimations of 880 megatons — about 17 Tsars, the biggest nuclear bomb ever created.
The good news (!) is that Apophis is still small enough not to kill us all, but it can disrupt life on the planet for a few decades (click here to watch Neil DeGrasse talking about the effects of an Apophis impact in California). For comparison, the Chicxulub asteroid released about 100,000,000 megatons when it triggered the mass extinction event that supposedly wiped out the dinosaurs.
In 2029 we’ll be safe from Apophis mayhem too. The asteroid will not hit Earth then, say astronomers, but it “will pass within 36,000 kilometres of Earth’s surface, closer even than the orbits of geostationary satellites.”
It’s awfully close for my taste, but that means, while our pale blue dot would be spared, our highly populated constellation of satellites may suffer some casualties. Which will be bad, but not as bad as NASA’s initial estimation of 2.7 per cent chance of impact.
Nobody knows exactly if a satellite collision may occur. Space is awfully small, but there are plenty of satellites out there. Enough that it’s not crazy to think that some of them may be wiped out as we watch Apophis marching through the night sky.
Scientists can’t tell what will happen in the following pass, in 2036. According to the latest analysis, there is a 1 in 250,000 probability of impact. It’s extremely low, but still higher than the odds of being hit by lightning. That’s why the Russians are considering a mission to deflect it — with Bruce Willis’ character played by Sean Connery as Captain Marko Ramius. [ESA]
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There’s a lot of space junk orbiting our planet. This is the Universe telling us to tidy up our act!
stupid thing is i bet a lot of that “junk” contains really rare metals like gold etc.. i bet there is enough to cover the cost and scoop a lot of it up..
If only there were some Polish folk who could fly around in a shuttle and collect it all.
If they can predict this why not move them, im sure we can live a while without calling Oz etc.. and i bet its better than waiting for them to send up a new one..
Damn, where are the Asgard when you need them?
Asgardians*
The Asgard*
you can contact them on The Facebook
“The Asgard” is acceptable as well.
Actually under the treaty the Asgard aren’t allowed to interrupt a natural event. We just need a cargo-ship with a hyper-drive.
But but…it’s Apophis!
They self destructed. We can now only rely on our own wiles, that and the City of Atlantis that is floating in San Fransisco bay.
That sounds like exactly the sort of thing he would do
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lhv2e0sPZ21qd655so1_400.jpg
“Space is awfully small”
*cough*
You’re talking about an object a ‘mere’ 325 metres across intercepting a satellite only a few metres across while that satellite travels along its 265,000km orbit. That doesn’t sound very likely, even with hundreds of satellites in geostationary orbit.
“The deadly asteroid Apophis” Jesus who or what exactly has been killed so far by Apophis? so this is more likely “The asteroid Apophis”
Guns are deadly, they don’t have to have actually killed merely have the potential.
Should it hit populated land it would most certainly be very deadly. With comments like “Space is small” you pick up on this one???
Am I the only one that can see a rubber duck in the top left of the image?