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There are all kinds of people who’d want to know if a movie will be a hit before it comes out: companies who are throwing down money on advertising, and even you before you let yourself get excited. Well according to researchers at Tottori University, there’s a mathematical equation out there that can do a pretty good job of just that.
Inspired by physics, the equation puts together variables like advertising, direct word of mouth, and general buzz to predict just how much a given blockbuster will bust blocks. And so far, according to Professor Akira Ishii, it works pretty well. The problem is that right now the calculations are a little too complex and specific for use outside the lab, but no doubt that’ll change after a while. In the mean time you’ll just have to go with your gut. [DigInfo]
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well i base a film on if the critics hate it, them chances are i will like it.
and i pretty much like all the big superhero movies except for daredevil and that last spiderman one
and other than star wars and LOTR
The bang bang club and The Eagle are two of my favourite films
What crap, anyone can create any equation to predict anything as long as you set the variables. They aren’t predicting anything that a person can’t by simple data observation, if a movie has a lot of chatter its more likely to be a success not really ground breaking. The same system is used to predict stocks and terrorism, its not prediction its just analysis.
Agreed, this can’t ‘predict’ anything. All it can say is stuff like “if a movie is good, it will be popular and there will be lots of buzz about it on the net” this does not mean the same as “if we generate a lot of buzz on the Internet about a movie, people will think it’s good and it will be popular” it just doesn’t work that way. Even if it did there are plenty of films that are considered classics that did poorly at the cinema.
Forgive me but that isn’t quite what he is saying, it sounds more like he’s calculating the success of a film irrelevant of the reviews how good or bad the movie is just how many people watch it
He is clearly using social media buzz and its offline equivalent word of mouth in his calculations, but this doesn’t “Predict If a Movie Will Be a Hit?” it might be useful for Hollywood to target their advertising spending in ways that produce more buzz. But by the time you reach that stage, you’ve already spent the majority of the money because you’ve made the film, If the film is shit you could achieve good early buzz with advertising and get people flocking to the cinema on opening night only for them to all come out saying (and posting) “this film is a turd”.
You have to remember that much of the chatter can start months before a move is even finished. I really don’t know what it is he’s doing to be honest in a lot of ways it sounds like he’s taking a very simple thing as buzz and trying to sell it using a “quantifiable method”
No.
It’s really just a desperate attempt to get funding for his department as the variables needed are harder to come by than the equation itself.
I was going to include a clip of the marketing team on the Simpsons adding 10% Rasta to Poochie but there are no clips!