Netflix issued its first quarter user gains report to investors today and the fact that it fell short of user growth estimates caused a brief drop in the streaming giant’s stock price. It blamed the lackluster growth on one thing: no House of Cards-style blockbusters. But in reality, Netflix is probably waking up to the crowded streaming landscape.
According to Bloomberg, analysts predicted that Netflix would pull in 5.49 million new users this quarter. The actual figure turned out to be 4.95 million additional subscribers, which is really nothing to sneeze at. The company announced it expects to pass 100 million users this coming weekend. But missing the projections means a lot when you’re a publicly traded company that bases its measure of success on growth.
Now, the world’s largest paid video service wants to be judged on its earnings rather than its growth. Considering it pulled in first quarter profits of $178 million, or 40 cents a share, that seems like a wise move. Despite a 5 point drop in its stock price in the late afternoon, Netflix is currently up a little over three per cent.
The investors who jumped in to take advantage of the discount were probably making a smart short-term decision—Netflix isn’t going anywhere. But the missed growth numbers and the new insistence on being judged by its earnings could signal an understanding that the service is about as big as it can get.
Sure, there are many more people on planet Earth that don’t subscribe to Netflix. They are potential customers. In the fourth quarter of 2015, research showed 49.1 million cable TV subscribers in the U.S. and that number is falling. Compare that to the 49.43 million subscribers Netflix had in the fourth quarter of 2016 and it might look like there’s room for the service to double its base in the States over time. But that leaves out the massive unbundling of cable that’s happening at the moment and the existence of niche competitors.
This is great for consumers. There’s nothing better than choice, especially if you’re just into horror movies, for instance—there’s a service for that. But Netflix’s days of being so far ahead of the game no one can touch them are possibly coming to an end. As long as they stay affordable and make enough content that people want to watch, they’ll be fine. But consumers will likely have to decide if they want to shell out a lot of dough for a bunch of services or narrow their choices to just one. If Netflix lives or dies by a single “House of Cards-style hit” they better hope they have a lot of them coming because the companies that make the other content are building their own streaming networks. [Bloomberg]